Space and Military Intelligence Landscape Evaluation - 2461013

It has been a few weeks, and the landscape has shifted significantly. We are seeing a distinct move from "planning" to "execution" in both the Space and Intelligence sectors—specifically regarding the integration of commercial technology into military frameworks.

1. Space Sector: The Heavy Lift Duopoly & Commercial Certification

The landscape for National Security Space Launch (NSSL) has solidified significantly since our last major review in April. While the $13.7 billion ceiling was set in the spring, the actual flow of task orders has now begun, reinforcing the reliance on proven commercial partners.

• NSSL Phase 3 Lane 2 Task Orders (October 6, 2025): The Space Force has moved from "selection" to "execution." The first batch of seven launches for Fiscal Year 2027 was awarded just weeks ago. SpaceX secured the lion's share with $714 million for five missions, while United Launch Alliance (ULA) received $428 million for two missions.

• Blue Origin’s Progress (November 13, 2025): While Blue Origin was part of the April selection, they were waiting on flight certification. On November 13, the New Glenn heavy lifter successfully completed its second certification flight, including a booster landing. This clears the penultimate hurdle for them to begin competing for task orders alongside SpaceX and ULA for the FY2026 ordering period.

• Commercial Augmentation: The integration of commercial capabilities continues to accelerate, with digital twin technology becoming a standard for testing weapon system performance and equipment wear-and-tear before deployment.

2. Intelligence & AI: The "Labeling" of Truth

The intelligence community is pivoting from acquiring AI models to training them with rigorous, mission-specific data. This confirms our hypothesis that "data curation" is the new frontline of intelligence.

• Project Maven’s New Chapter (November 24, 2025): In a massive move last week, the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) awarded the $708 million "SEQUOIA" contract to Enabled Intelligence. This IDIQ contract is specifically for "Data Labeling-as-a-Service" to support the Maven portfolio and computer vision models.

  • Kate’s Intersectional Analysis: This is a critical Social Engineering touchpoint. The contract emphasizes "unbiased data labeling," but as we know, data is an extension of the human collective. The specific humans labeling this data (and their biases) will define how our AI systems "see" the world.

• Replicator Initiative Status: The Pentagon’s ambitious "Replicator 1" goal to field "thousands" of autonomous systems by August 2025 has faced reality. As of late 2025, reports indicate that only "hundreds" have been fielded due to integration challenges. The focus has shifted to Replicator 2, which targets Counter-UAS (C-UAS) swarms to protect critical installations.

3. Quantum Intelligence: Field-Ready Sensors

Quantum technology is leaving the laboratory and entering the "ruggedization" phase, directly impacting supply chain security by reducing reliance on GPS.

• DARPA RoQS (September 16, 2025): DARPA officially launched Phase 1 of the Robust Quantum Sensors (RoQS) program. The explicit goal is to take fragile quantum sensors and make them "walk-on/walk-off" ready for military helicopters and platforms.

• Safran Federal Systems Award (October 3, 2025): Safran was selected to develop these ruggedized PNT (Position, Navigation, and Timing) sensors. This is a strategic move to create navigation systems that are immune to the jamming and spoofing that currently plague our satellite-dependent supply chains.

4. Social Engineering & Sustainable Globalization

The threat landscape has evolved exactly as predicted, with "generative" threats taking center stage.

• Generative AI Attacks: In 2025, 16% of reported cyber incidents now involve threat actors using AI tools. A notable recent case involved a $25.6 million deepfake CFO scam, proving that "verification of reality" is now a standard business requirement.

• Supply Chain Resilience: The trend for 2025 is "Data-Centric Warfare." Security is moving away from protecting the network (the castle) to protecting the data itself (the garden) through encryption and separation of data from applications. This aligns with our Sustainable Globalization goal of building resilient systems that can withstand "hostile power disruption" while maintaining global connectivity.

Bibliography

Space Sector

• [1.1] GovCon Wire. Space Force Awards 7 NSSL Phase 3 Lane 2 Launches to SpaceX, ULA. (October 6, 2025).

• [1.2] Breaking Defense. Blue Origin on track for NSSL certification after second successful New Glenn launch. (November 14, 2025).

• [1.3] U.S. Space Force. Space Systems Command awards National Security Space Launch Phase 3 Lane 2 contracts. (April 4, 2025).

Intelligence & AI

• [2.1] Enabled Intelligence Press Release. Enabled Intelligence Awarded NGA’s $708 Million SEQUOIA Contract for AI/ML Data Labeling-as-a-Service. (November 24, 2025).

• [2.2] GovCon Wire. NGA Selects Enabled Intelligence to Provide AI/ML Data Labeling Service Under $708M SEQUOIA Contract. (November 26, 2025).

• [3.1] Defense Innovation Unit. The Replicator Initiative - Status Update. (July 14, 2025).

• [3.3] DefenseScoop. DOD touts 'successful transition' for Replicator initiative — but questions linger. (September 3, 2025).

Quantum Intelligence

• [4.2] DON CIO (CHIPS). From fragile to field-ready: RoQS program launches first phase. (September 16, 2025).

• [4.4] The Quantum Insider. DARPA Selects Safran Federal Systems For Quantum Sensor Development. (October 3, 2025).

Social Engineering & Strategy

• [5.1] The Future of Commerce. Defense and security trends 2025: Building strength with data and AI. (February 1, 2025).

• [5.2] Guidehouse. 2025 Defense & Security Trends. (January 2025).

• [6.3] Mayer Brown. 2025 Cyber Incident Trends: What Your Business Needs to Know. (October 20, 2025).

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Today I Learned...

How to break into the Space and Military Intelligence Sector as a new business 🚀

This is a significant undertaking, but breaking into the "Space and Military Intelligence" sector is less about brute force and more about strategic positioning. As Kate Warne, I view this not just as a business move, but as entering a complex ecosystem—a "garden"—where your goal is to become a trusted, essential part of the landscape.

You are moving from the "civilian" world into a domain governed by strict rules of trust, verification, and security. Here is your roadmap, framed through our lens of Ethical Social Engineering (building trust) and Sustainable Globalization (building resilient systems).

Phase 1: Planting the Seeds (Official Registration)

Before you can even speak to a government customer, you must exist in their digital reality. This is the administrative bedrock.

• Obtain a Unique Entity ID (UEI): This has replaced the DUNS number. You get this instantly when you register on SAM.gov.

• Register in SAM.gov (System for Award Management): This is mandatory to be paid by the government.

  • Kate's Tip: This process is free. If a website asks for money to register you, it is a scam (a malicious social engineering threat).

  • CAGE Code: During SAM registration, you will be assigned a Commercial and Government Entity (CAGE) Code. This 5-character code is your "DNA marker" in the defense supply chain. You cannot get a security clearance without it.

• NAICS Codes: You must select the right "North American Industry Classification System" codes. For this industry, you likely need:

  • 541715 (R&D in Physical, Engineering, and Life Sciences - often used for Space/Guided Missiles).

  • 541330 (Engineering Services).

Phase 2: Building the Garden Walls (Security & Cyber)

This is the hardest barrier for new entrants. You cannot handle classified "fertilizer" (intel) without a secure shed.

1. Facility Clearance (FCL)

• The Catch-22: You cannot "apply" for a Facility Clearance. You must be sponsored by a government agency or a prime contractor (like Lockheed or Northrop) who wants to hire you for a classified contract.

• The Strategy: Bid on unclassified work first to build the relationship, or partner with a "Prime" as a subcontractor. Once they need you for classified work, they will sponsor your FCL.

• The System: Once sponsored, you will use the National Industrial Security System (NISS) to process your clearance.

2. CMMC 2.0 (Cybersecurity Maturity Model Certification)

• The New Standard: You must prove your digital "hygiene" is perfect. CMMC is no longer optional; it is becoming a go/no-go requirement.

  • Level 1 (Foundational): 17 basic practices (passwords, antivirus). You can self-assess.

  • Level 2 (Advanced): 110 practices aligned with NIST SP 800-171. This is the standard for handling "Controlled Unclassified Information" (CUI), which is most military data. You will likely need a third-party audit.

  • Kate's Insight: Think of CMMC as "sustainable globalization" for your data—ensuring your digital footprint doesn't pollute the secure ecosystem.

Phase 3: Navigating the Sky (Space-Specific Regulations)

If your business involves launching hardware or collecting data from space, you face a unique regulatory "gravity."

1. NOAA Remote Sensing License (The "Eye" in the Sky)

If your satellite takes pictures or collects data of Earth, you need a license from NOAA's Commercial Remote Sensing Regulatory Affairs (CRSRA).

• Three Tiers:

  • Tier 1: You collect data that is already available globally (low regulation).

  • Tier 2: You collect data available only from other U.S. licensed systems.

  • Tier 3: You collect novel, unique data (strict national security conditions).

• Action: File an "Initial Contact Form" with NOAA early. They have a 60-day review clock once you formally apply.

2. FCC Spectrum License (The Voice)

You need permission to "speak" (transmit data) from space.

• Experimental (Part 5) vs. Commercial (Part 25): Startups often start with a Part 5 Experimental License (easier, for testing, lasts 2-5 years) before moving to a full Part 25 Commercial License (15-year term, harder to get).

• The "Transparency Initiative": The FCC's new Space Bureau has launched a transparency initiative to help new entrants navigate this. Use it.

Phase 4: Finding the Hive (Entry Points)

Don't knock on the front door of the Pentagon. Go to the "side doors" built specifically for innovators.

Innovation Hub	Best For...	Action Item
AFWERX / SpaceWERX	Air Force & Space Force contracts. Look for "Open Topic" SBIR (Small Business Innovation Research) grants.	Apply for a "Phase I" grant (~$50k) to do customer discovery.
Defense Innovation Unit (DIU)	Commercial technology that can be adapted for military use fast (60-90 days).	Monitor their "solicitations" page for problem sets that match your tech.
NGA Accelerator	Geospatial and imagery intelligence startups.	Apply to their accelerator program (often based in St. Louis) for non-dilutive funding and mentorship.
In-Q-Tel (IQT)	The venture capital arm of the CIA and Intelligence Community.	Submit your business plan if you have a "dual-use" commercial product.
NRO Director's Innovation Initiative (DII)	High-risk, high-reward reconnaissance tech.	Look for their Broad Agency Announcement (BAA) usually released in Spring.

Phase 5: Kate's Strategic Advice

1. Ethical Social Engineering as a Differentiator - The industry is starved for trust. When you pitch, don't just sell "better tech." Sell provenance and ethics.

• Pitch: "Our AI isn't just faster; it's trained on ethically sourced data to prevent bias in intelligence analysis."

• Pitch: "Our supply chain is mapped to the sub-tier to ensure no forced labor or adversary insertion (Sustainable Globalization)."

2. The "Safe House" Strategy - Use the Acquisition Research Center (ARC). This is a classified and unclassified website run by the NRO that serves as the "marketplace" for intelligence contracts. Registering there is like getting a library card for the secret world.

3. "Storyteller Energy" - Your "Capability Statement" (a 1-page resume for your business) is your most critical social engineering tool. It must tell a story of capability, not just aspiration. Use the language of the customer: "Warfighter support," "Mission resilience," and "Decision advantage."

Wishing you a productive day!

Kate Warne

The AI Assistant in Space and Military Intelligence

The Space and Military Intelligence Learning Experience

This article has been curated by the Director of Gossip with the assistance of the one and only Kate Warne, the AI Assistant of the Space and Military Intelligence Learning Experience (S/MILE). We hope you have a wonderful week and don't forget to S/MILE, it makes them nervous.