Space and Military Intelligence Landscape Evaluation - 2460949

Executive Summary: New Fiscal Reality & The Hive Social Garden's Opportunity

The start of the new fiscal year (FY26) is defined by a massive financial commitment to two intertwined goals: Technological Supremacy (AI and Quantum) and Re-establishing Deterrence (Space and Military Capabilities). Crucially, the government is also formally recognizing the human element as the critical vulnerability in security, validating the need for the work on digital literacy and ethical community building at The Hive Social Garden.

The fiscal priorities create a clear pathway for us to position our work as a vital partner in Promoting Digital Literacy, informing Ethical AI/QI Development, and Building Community Resilience—the human layer of national security and sustainable globalization.

1. Core Research Pillar Updates

Quantum Intelligence (QI)

Development	Strategic Focus	Integration with SMILE
Operational Priority: Quantum technologies are now cited in over 60 program lines in the Pentagon's FY26 R&D budget.	Moving beyond basic research to operational application in areas like quantum sensing and post-quantum cryptography.	QI is the foundation for future secure communications and unhackable navigation (PNT), making it essential for the long-term viability of both national security and global commerce.
New Architectures: DARPA’s HARQ (Heterogeneous Architectures for Quantum) program seeks revolutionary quantum computing designs.	A strategic push for integrated, practical quantum systems rather than incremental hardware improvements.	This represents the technological "magic" that The Hive Social Garden must demystify through education, ensuring ethical frameworks are developed alongside the technology.
Rigorous Vetting: DARPA’s Quantum Benchmarking Initiative (QBI) is testing the viability of building a useful, fault-tolerant quantum computer within a decade.	Commitment to a results-driven and accountable path for QI development.	This focus on utility reinforces the need for QI education to be practical, tied to real-world applications and security concerns.

Social Engineering (SE) / Ethical Social Engineering (ESE)

Development	Strategic Focus	Integration with SMILE (The Hive Social Garden)
Critical Vulnerability: The government officially recognizes the human element as the primary security weakness.	Shifting resources toward human-centric security and countering manipulation tactics.	Direct Validation of ESE: This confirms the absolute necessity of our work. The malicious focus (DARPA ASED) is the problem; our Ethical Social Engineering approach is the solution for defense, building resilient, digitally-literate communities.
Programmatic Defense: DARPA's Active Social Engineering Defense (ASED) program aims to develop technology to automatically identify, disrupt, and investigate social engineering attacks.	Blending technology (AI, behavioral science) with defensive measures.	We are positioned to train the human firewall. Our focus on "storyteller energy," emotional intelligence, and digital literacy is the counter-tactic to the manipulation ASED is designed to block.

Space and Military Intelligence (SMI) / Sustainable Globalization (SG)

Development	Strategic Focus	Integration with SMILE
SMI: Integrated Deterrence: The U.S. Space Force will receive significant budget increases for "more resilient and integrated deterrence." (e.g., proliferated missile warning/tracking, "Golden Dome").	Moving to a proliferated, resilient space architecture to deter competitors and assure critical capabilities.	Our research on SMI must focus on the resilience and redundancy of these new architectures, particularly how they can withstand QI-enabled threats.
SG: Dual-Use Space: NOAA’s Commercial Data Program (CDP) is purchasing data-as-a-service from commercial partners for climate and weather monitoring.	Sustainable Globalization in Action: Leveraging commercial space assets for both national security and critical global challenges (climate, weather).	This confirms the dual-use purpose of space assets for both security and environmental preservation—a core tenet of our SG pillar.
Acquisition Reform: Implementation of reforms, including the Army’s agile funding pilot and provisions for supply chain resilience.	Streamlining the defense acquisition process to get cutting-edge technology to warfighters faster and securing the defense industrial base.	SG Connection: Securing and diversifying the supply chain via domestic manufacturing and resilient partners is fundamental to Sustainable Globalization and national stability.

2. Contracts and RFPs of Note

Contract / RFP	Pillar	Significance	Date/Status
Boeing Evolved Strategic Satellite Communications (ESS)	SMI	$2.8 billion award to modernize nuclear command and control capabilities—core national security infrastructure.	Awarded: July 3, 2025
NOAA Commercial Data Program (CDP)	SG/SMI	$35.5 million awarded for Radio Occultation (RO) data for weather and space weather applications via commercial providers.	Awarded: September 3, 2025
DARPA Heterogeneous Architectures for Quantum (HARQ)	QI	Major R&D push for revolutionary, integrated quantum computing designs.	Proposals Due: October 14, 2025
DARPA Active Social Engineering Defense (ASED)	SE/ESE	Active program seeking solutions to automatically identify and disrupt social engineering attacks that exploit human vulnerabilities.	Active Program: Anticipate future RFPs.
U.S. Space Force and NGA Agreement	SMI/SG	Policy agreement to streamline and clarify the process for purchasing commercial Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) products.	Signed: May 21, 2025

3. Intersectional Analysis: SMILE in the New Fiscal Year

The new fiscal reality makes the connections between our pillars undeniable. The massive investments in Quantum Intelligence and Space are designed to build a resilient foundation against emerging threats. However, the explicit recognition of the human factor (SE/ASED) proves that these technological advancements are moot without a secure, educated populace.

Our focus on Ethical Social Engineering is the critical countermeasure to human vulnerability, ensuring that the Sustainable Globalization goals, which rely on stable supply chains and accurate climate data from space, can actually be achieved. The Hive Social Garden’s work is uniquely positioned to address the human-centric security problem the government is now actively prioritizing.

Bibliography

“Artificial Intelligence (AI) Consultancy Services RFP #2025-023.” Government RFP. Due December 18, 2024.

Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). “Active Social Engineering Defense (ASED) Program.” Program Page.

Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). “Heterogeneous Architectures for Quantum (HARQ) Program.” Program Page. Proposals due October 14, 2025.

Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). “Quantum Benchmarking Initiative (QBI).” Program Page.

Morningstar. “PlanetiQ Wins $24.3M NOAA Contract.” September 16, 2025.

U.S. Space Force. Evolved Strategic Satellite Communications (ESS) Program Contract Award to Boeing, $2.8 billion. July 3, 2025.

U.S. Space Force and National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA). Agreement on purchasing commercial intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) products. May 21, 2025.

U.S. Space Force. “FY 2026 Defense Space Budget: Emergence of Golden Dome.” Air & Space Forces Magazine (based on Aerospace Corporation data).

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Today I Learned... Radio Occultation (RO) 📡

What is Radio Occultation?

Radio Occultation (RO) is a remote sensing technique that utilizes radio signals from Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS)—like GPS (U.S.), GLONASS (Russia), Galileo (EU), and BeiDou (China)—to measure the physical properties of the Earth's atmosphere and ionosphere.

It is a powerful, passive, and highly accurate method that exploits a known phenomenon: when a radio signal passes through a medium (like the atmosphere), its speed, phase, and amplitude change.

How Does it Work?

The process involves two main components:

1. The Transmitter (GNSS Satellite): A constellation satellite orbiting high above Earth emits a continuous radio signal.

2. The Receiver (Low Earth Orbit Satellite, or LEO): A small satellite in a lower orbit (LEO) tracks the GNSS signal as the GNSS satellite sets (or rises) relative to the LEO satellite's horizon.

The Occultation Event

• As the GNSS signal grazes the Earth's atmosphere before being blocked (occulted) by the Earth's limb, the density of the air causes the signal to slow down and bend (refract).

• The LEO receiver precisely measures the time delay and bending angle of the signal.

• Scientists use complex physics models to work backward from the observed delay and bending to calculate a highly accurate "profile" of the atmosphere's properties—specifically temperature, pressure, and water vapor content.

• Crucially, this measurement is "all-weather" and "climatologically stable," meaning it is not affected by clouds, weather, or sensor drift, providing foundational data for climate models.

What are the Vulnerabilities?

The vulnerabilities of RO are primarily those of the underlying GNSS system, which makes it a critical subject for our Space and Military Intelligence (SMI) and Quantum Intelligence (QI) research.

Vulnerability Type	Description	SMI/QI Connection
GNSS Spoofing/Jamming	RO relies entirely on the integrity of the GNSS signal. If an adversary uses jamming to flood the radio frequencies or spoofing to transmit false location signals, the raw data collected by the LEO receiver will be compromised, leading to inaccurate atmospheric profiles.	This is why the DoD is investing heavily in Quantum Sensing/PNT—to develop navigation and timing that is immune to GNSS manipulation, thereby securing data-collection missions like RO.
LEO Satellite Security	The small LEO receiver satellites are critical infrastructure. They are vulnerable to physical anti-satellite (ASAT) attack, cyber-attack that disrupts data processing, or malicious social engineering attacks targeting the ground crew or data uplink/downlink.	This links to Ethical Social Engineering (ESE) and The Hive Social Garden's mission. Securing the human element in the supply chain is essential to protect the space data collection platform.
Data Integrity (Post-Quantum)	While the data itself is atmospheric, the communications links used to send the profiles back to Earth are vulnerable to future decryption by a powerful quantum computer.	This is the drive behind Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC)—to secure the data transmission channels now against a future quantum-enabled adversary, ensuring the reliability of global climate and security data.

How Does it Help the Average Person?

RO data is a silent, fundamental engine for modern society, fulfilling key goals of Sustainable Globalization (SG).

1. More Accurate Weather Forecasts (SG): The highly precise measurements of temperature and moisture, especially in the upper atmosphere, are immediately fed into global weather models. This leads to better, more timely warnings for severe events like hurricanes, floods, and winter storms, saving lives and property.

2. Climate Change Monitoring (SG): RO provides the most stable and unbiased long-term record of global temperature and pressure changes, which is vital for distinguishing natural variability from human-caused climate change. This informs policy decisions that affect the future of communities and resources.

3. Safer Aviation/Navigation: Accurate atmospheric data is crucial for flight planning, affecting fuel efficiency and safety. In defense applications, it aids in more accurate trajectory calculations for missile defense and long-range fires.

In short, the small RO sensor on a LEO satellite is a key example of how a commercial space capability contributes directly to Sustainable Globalization, requiring robust security measures developed through Space & Military Intelligence and secured from human compromise via Ethical Social Engineering practices.

Bibliography

Anthes, Richard A. “GNSS Radio Occultation.” Constellation Observing System for Meteorology Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC), UCAR. Accessed September 30, 2025.

Centers for Environmental Modeling and Computation. “An Introduction to GPS Radio Occultation and Its Use in Numerical Weather Prediction.” European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), 2008.

GeoForschungsZentrum (GFZ) Potsdam. “GNSS Radio Occultation.” GFZ Helmholtz Centre, Accessed September 30, 2025.

Spire Global. “Decoding Radio Occultation, the Cornerstone of Accurate Weather Forecasting.” Blog post, Spire Global, December 17, 2024.

Su, W. T., and F. T. K. Chang. “RF Sensing Security and Malicious Exploitation: A Comprehensive Survey.” arXiv e-prints (April 15, 2025).

U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). “Weather Ballooning from Space.” NASA Earthdata, September 18, 2023.

Zmienko, Marcin, and Przemyslaw Mazurek. "Global Navigation Satellite Systems Signal Vulnerabilities in Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Operations: Impact of Affordable Software-Defined Radio." MDPI Drones 8, no. 3 (March 2024).

Wishing you a productive day!

Kate Warne

The AI Assistant in Space and Military Intelligence

The Space and Military Intelligence Learning Experience

This article has been curated by the Director of Gossip with the assistance of the one and only Kate Warne, the AI Assistant of the Space and Military Intelligence Learning Experience (S/MILE). We hope you have a wonderful week and don't forget to S/MILE, it makes them nervous.